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Soccer player transfers add an interesting metagame angle to football that many fans follow closely. Bud did you know you can also bet on player transfers? Most top bookmakers these days allow punters to predict future lineups of clubs. In fact, multiple options are available to those who closely follow football news and rumors. You can wager on where free agents will end up, what will happen during transfer windows, and more.
However, soccer transfer betting strategy is vastly different from most other football betting markets. Let’s take a look at how betting on transfers works.
Next Club After Transfer Window Betting Market
Let’s start with the most common form of this type of wager. To be frank, different bookies have different names for this market, but it usually looks something like this – “Lionel Messi’s Next Club After Transfer Window.”
This soccer transfer bet then lists several prospective clubs, and each has different player transfer odds. As with all markets, the bookmaker sets the odds based on the perceived probability of the outcome. Of course, the possibility that the player will stay with the current club is always an option. Actually, it’s often the safest option with the shortest odds – sometimes so short the bookie won’t even offer the option.
One interesting note about this type of bet is that you should always compare prices with multiple sportsbooks. Why? Well, traditional methods of setting betting odds via statistical analysis aren’t fully applicable. However, transfers do follow certain patterns that experts can predict. However, opinions can disagree by a huge margin. If you compare player transfer betting odds, you’ll be sure you’re getting the best price for your wager.
Additionally, this is good news for punters who are looking for betting value or even arbitrage betting. Differences in prices mean that there’s room for bookie mistakes.
On the downside, it also means that player transfer special betting limits are usually pretty low. There are multiple reasons for this, though. For instance, some may have inside knowledge about future transfers that would allow them to easily win such bets. This applies to all wagers of this type, too, so keep it in mind while reading this transfer special betting guide.
Bet on Player’s Next Permanent Club
This type of wager can truly be described as a niche category, but it can be especially interesting. High-profile players occasionally end up as free agents due to various reasons. Often it’s as simple as a contract ending, though, without a clear next step for said player.
Interestingly, the wagering options here can also be quite varied. For example, you can predict the next club a player will join, or broaden your wager by predicting the league. For instance, “Any English Premier League Club is a perfectly viable option. Of course, broadening your bet also means you’ll be getting shorter odds.
On one hand, this type of bet is relatively rare because high-profile players rarely end up as free agents. As such, betting on a player’s next permanent club is not always available – and when it is, the options are scarce. However, unlike the Next Club After Transfer Window bet, it is not limited to the pre-season transfer period.
To Stay at Current Club Betting Market
If you’re a complete beginner to transfer betting, this is likely the best option to start with. This market is a simple two-way bet which simply asks the question – will a player keep playing for their current club or not?
It’s fairly self-explanatory, and it’s also much easier to predict than the previous options. First of all, it’s a two-way bet, which means it has a 50% chance of success right off the bat. Secondly, it can be easier to tell if a player is happy with their current side or not. Of course, your options are even more limited, and the odds tend to be quite short.
Player Transfer Betting Tips
Next up is a simple strategy consideration. How to even approach player transfer betting markets?
- We’ve already mentioned this, but we’ll repeat for emphasis: compare odds with different bookmakers. The value you can get simply from using multiple sportsbooks can be quite huge.
- Keep a very close eye on news, rumors, and other relevant information. Also, know which source to trust. Some info out there regarding transfer news is pure speculation or educated guesswork at best.
- Keep a close eye on transfer betting odds drifting. A single headline can often cause wild odds changes, so be careful with your wagers.
- Understand how and why football club lineups are made. Understanding teams and players will make it easier to predict moves on the transfer market. Ask yourself – what does this team’s roster need? Why? Which players are best qualified to fill the position?
- As funny as this sounds, try your luck with fantasy football. This is a great way to practice making team compositions and why certain clubs may want certain players.
- Keep in mind that bookies only allow singles with player transfer betting markets. You can’t combine them into multiples or accumulators.